{"id":93,"date":"2022-11-28T17:11:24","date_gmt":"2022-11-28T17:11:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/?p=93"},"modified":"2023-04-23T15:29:04","modified_gmt":"2023-04-23T15:29:04","slug":"recession-statistics","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/","title":{"rendered":"Recession Statistics 2022-2023"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Recession_Statistics_2022-2021_and_2023\"><\/span>Recession Statistics 2022-2021 and 2023<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Close to Recession But Not Quite In July 2022<\/li>\n<li>Risk of Recession in 2023 Rises Globally<\/li>\n<li>World Economic Outlook Report Countering The Cost-of-Living Crisis<\/li>\n<li>Chance of a 2022 Recession is Rising With Inflation<\/li>\n<li>Probability of U.S. Recession Spikes to 96%<\/li>\n<li>Is the U.S. in Recession in 2022?<\/li>\n<li>Statista Recession Probability in U.S. 2023<\/li>\n<li>OECD Economic Outlook<\/li>\n<li>Global economy Outlook as global recession looms to 3.2%<\/li>\n<li>Are We In A Recession Yet?<\/li>\n<li>U.S. Recession Within Year Hits 100%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure id=\"attachment_95\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-95\" style=\"width: 656px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/recession-statistics.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-95\" src=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/recession-statistics.jpg\" alt=\"Recession Statistics\" width=\"666\" height=\"444\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/recession-statistics.jpg 666w, https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/11\/recession-statistics-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 666px) 100vw, 666px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-95\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Recession Statistics 2022-2023 and 2021<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Recession_Facts_2022-2021_and_2023\"><\/span>Recession Facts 2022-2021 and 2023<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>The term recession describes a period when the economy experiences an extended period of low growth. A recession may also be defined as a decline in economic activity lasting for more than a few months. It usually is visible in real GDP growth, personal income, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. Recession statistics help to identify the proximate causes of recessions and predict their duration.<\/p><div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_65 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title \" >Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/#Recession_Statistics_2022-2021_and_2023\" title=\"Recession Statistics 2022-2021 and 2023\">Recession Statistics 2022-2021 and 2023<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/#Recession_Facts_2022-2021_and_2023\" title=\"Recession Facts 2022-2021 and 2023\">Recession Facts 2022-2021 and 2023<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/#More_Recession_Stats_2022-2023\" title=\"More Recession Stats 2022-2023\">More Recession Stats 2022-2023<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/#Is_the_US_in_a_Recession_right_now\" title=\"Is the US in a Recession right now\">Is the US in a Recession right now<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/#1_Close_to_Recession_But_Not_Quite_In_July_2022\" title=\"1. Close to Recession But Not Quite In July 2022\">1. Close to Recession But Not Quite In July 2022<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-5' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-5'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/#Are_we_in_a_Recession\" title=\"Are we in a Recession?\">Are we in a Recession?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/#2_Risk_of_Recession_in_2023_Rises_Globally\" title=\"2. Risk of Recession in 2023 Rises Globally\">2. Risk of Recession in 2023 Rises Globally<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/#Does_Pandemic_inflation_Cause_a_Recession\" title=\"Does Pandemic inflation Cause\u00a0 a Recession?\">Does Pandemic inflation Cause\u00a0 a Recession?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-5' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-5'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/#4_Chance_of_a_2022_Recession_is_Rising_With_Inflation\" title=\"4. Chance of a 2022 Recession is Rising With Inflation\">4. Chance of a 2022 Recession is Rising With Inflation<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/#5_Probability_of_US_Recession_Spikes_to_96\" title=\"5. Probability of U.S. Recession Spikes to 96%\">5. Probability of U.S. Recession Spikes to 96%<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/#6_Is_the_US_in_Recession_in_2022\" title=\"6. Is the U.S. in Recession in 2022?\">6. Is the U.S. in Recession in 2022?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-12\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/#7_Statista_Recession_Probability_in_US_2023\" title=\"7. Statista Recession Probability in U.S. 2023\">7. Statista Recession Probability in U.S. 2023<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-13\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/#8_OECD_Economic_Outlook\" title=\"8. OECD Economic Outlook\">8. OECD Economic Outlook<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-14\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/#9_Global_economy_Outlook_as_global_recession_looms_to_32\" title=\"9. Global economy Outlook as global recession looms to 3.2%\">9. Global economy Outlook as global recession looms to 3.2%<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-15\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/#10_Are_We_In_A_Recession_Yet\" title=\"10. Are We In A Recession Yet?\">10. Are We In A Recession Yet?<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-4' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-4'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-16\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/#11_US_Recession_Within_Year_Hits_100\" title=\"11. U.S. Recession Within Year Hits 100%\">11. U.S. Recession Within Year Hits 100%<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n\n<p>GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the total monetary value of all services and finished goods within a country&#8217;s borders in a year. Real GDP is an indicator that measures the overall output of goods and services in a country. \u00a0This data is updated yearly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). \u00a0When GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters, the BEA considers this a recession. Here are the recession statistics for 2022.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"More_Recession_Stats_2022-2023\"><\/span>More <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/\">Recession Stats<\/a> 2022-2023<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Is_the_US_in_a_Recession_right_now\"><\/span>Is the US in a Recession right now<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"1_Close_to_Recession_But_Not_Quite_In_July_2022\"><\/span>1. Close to Recession But Not Quite In July 2022<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>Though real GDP declining for two quarters is not <a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/billconerly\/2022\/07\/05\/already-in-recession-close-but-not-quite-in-july-2022\/\">definitive on recession<\/a>, but it&#8217;s certainly worth looking at. Real GDP dropped 1,6% in the first quarter of 2022. \u00a0It dropped 4,2% in the second quarter. \u00a0This doesn&#8217;t mean we&#8217;re already in recession, but the economy is on shaky ground. This &#8220;not quite there&#8221; feeling will continue over the next twelve months as real GDP continues to fall by 1% in the third quarter, 0,5% in the fourth quarter, and 0,1% in the first quarter of 2023.<\/p>\n<h5><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Are_we_in_a_Recession\"><\/span>Are we in a Recession?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h5>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"2_Risk_of_Recession_in_2023_Rises_Globally\"><\/span>2. Risk of Recession in 2023 Rises Globally<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>Suppose this <a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldbank.org\/en\/news\/press-release\/2022\/09\/15\/risk-of-global-recession-in-2023-rises-amid-simultaneous-rate-hikes\">global risk of recession<\/a> was accompanied by financial-market stress. The GDP growth would slow to 0.5 percent in 2023\u2014a 0.4 percent contraction in per\u2013capita GDP growth. A simultaneous tightening in major advanced economies would also increase funding costs for emerging market economies (EMEs). This combination of factors would raise the risk of a global recession in 2023, with EME growth falling to a trough of under 2 percent and per capita GDP falling by 1.2 percent.<\/p>\n<p>3. World Economic Outlook Report Countering The Cost-of-Living Crisis<\/p>\n<p>The Outlook reports that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO\/Issues\/2022\/10\/11\/world-economic-outlook-october-2022\">global growth recession<\/a> is forecast to decline from 6.0% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023. \u00a0The slowdown would be driven by a moderation in the expansion of investment and manufacturing output in the United States, China, and the rest of Asia. This would be accompanied by a faster-than-anticipated tightening of monetary policy in major advanced economies, stimulating imports from EMEs. \u00a0A more pronounced slowdown than anticipated in these economies could lead to an even more significant increase in effective global interest rates and trigger a global recession.<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Does_Pandemic_inflation_Cause_a_Recession\"><\/span>Does Pandemic inflation Cause\u00a0 a Recession?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<h5><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"4_Chance_of_a_2022_Recession_is_Rising_With_Inflation\"><\/span>4. Chance of a 2022 Recession is Rising With Inflation<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h5>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/07\/20\/economists-chance-of-a-2022-recession-is-rising-with-inflation.html\">median recession probability<\/a> over the next 12 months is 47.5%, up from 30% in June 2018. At the same time, the likelihood of deflation is 58.5%, up from 16% in June 2018. Inflation will undermine borrowers&#8217; purchasing power and weigh on consumption and investment. A recession would put more pressure on government finances, leading to higher debt levels for many countries and thus potentially stoking inflation.<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"5_Probability_of_US_Recession_Spikes_to_96\"><\/span>5. Probability of U.S. Recession Spikes to 96%<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>While the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conference-board.org\/research\/economy-strategy-finance-charts\/CoW-Recession-Probability\">recession probability of U.S.<\/a> hovered near zero after the initial phase of the global pandemic from September 2020 to March 2022, it rose to over 30 percent in April and reached 50 percent by June. \u00a0Following the turn in the U.S. data, the probability of a recession rose further to over continuously. \u00a0This is an extraordinarily high probability under current accounting conventions, which reflect less severe short-term macroeconomic shocks than historical precedents. \u00a0Likely to be seen as a credible signal that economic expansion is nearing its end and that a recession remains possible for some time before it occurs.<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"6_Is_the_US_in_Recession_in_2022\"><\/span>6. Is the U.S. in Recession in 2022?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/time.com\/6201205\/what-is-a-recession-2022\/\">Recession in the U.S. has many different signs<\/a>, but there needs to be one indicator. In the second quarter of 2022, growth slowed at a 0.9% annualized rate to 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2018. That&#8217;s despite GDP rising at an 8.1% rate in the first quarter of 2022. GDP contracted 0.9% in the third quarter, considerably worse than the projected 0.1%. \u00a0But real GDP growth has continued slowly through 2019. Quarterly rates declined to 0% in the fourth quarter of 2019, 1%. In the first quarter of 2020, a revised 1.4% in the second quarter for a cumulative decline of 3.3%.<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"7_Statista_Recession_Probability_in_US_2023\"><\/span>7. Statista Recession Probability in U.S. 2023<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>By September 2023, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.statista.com\/statistics\/1239080\/us-monthly-projected-recession-probability\/\">recession probability in the U.S. 2023<\/a> is projected that there is a probability of 23.07 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. The probability of recessions in the U.S. increases in January and December 2022 and then decreases in July 2025. \u00a0The recession&#8217;s probability is forecast to remain close to zero throughout the decade, but it does continue to rise in October 2024.<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"8_OECD_Economic_Outlook\"><\/span>8. OECD Economic Outlook<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>OECD reported despite a boost in activity as COVID-19 infections drop worldwide. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oecd.org\/economic-outlook\/september-2022\/\">The global growth is seen to remain<\/a> in the second half of 2022 before slowing to 2.2% going into 2023. The leading factor slowing global growth is the generalized tightening of monetary policy, especially in advanced economies, which pushes up world interest rates and slows investment and trade. \u00a0This increases the funding costs for emerging market economies (EMEs), and growth slows to 2.6%.<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"9_Global_economy_Outlook_as_global_recession_looms_to_32\"><\/span>9. Global economy Outlook as global recession looms to 3.2%<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>Global Economists report that <a href=\"https:\/\/news.un.org\/en\/story\/2022\/07\/1123342\">the recession will worsen<\/a> because conditions are becoming tighter. The forecast for global growth is for it to slow from 6.1%t last year to 3.2 % in 2022 \u2013 0.4 percent lower than the current forecast from the World Bank. \u00a0That is weaker than the 2.7 percent growth of 2017-19, the worst since 2010-12, because of a fall in commodity prices. Inflation will be at 3 percent in 2022 \u2013 lower than the 4 percent seen in 2017\u201319 \u2013 and average global interest rates will be 5 % points higher than they were last year.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"10_Are_We_In_A_Recession_Yet\"><\/span>10. Are We In A Recession Yet?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>According to a Forbes Advisor, the definition of recession,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/advisor\/investing\/are-we-in-a-recession\/\"> two consecutive quarters of negative (GDP) show that the United States entered a recession<\/a> during the summer of 2022. \u00a0Still, it is worth noting that the economy went into recession after the summer of 2022. \u00a0It&#8217;s different from the tightening monetary policy that was taking place in 2022, which was offsetting the economy&#8217;s problems, like trade disputes and rising costs of goods and services. \u00a0Inflation was also starting to get out of hand as we approach 2023.<\/p>\n<h4><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"11_US_Recession_Within_Year_Hits_100\"><\/span>11. U.S. Recession Within Year Hits 100%<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h4>\n<p>The latest recession shows that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2022-10-17\/forecast-for-us-recession-within-year-hits-100-in-blow-to-biden\">the U.S. Recession will hit 100% within the year<\/a>. Probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger show a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period earlier update. The analysis includes data from the Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.<\/p>\n<p>The IMF released a statement on the results of their analysis, calling for discussions and a concerted effort by the global community. Earlier, the probability of a U.S. recession rise to over 90 percent was already underlined, with signs of inflation appearing quite closely. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/business\/20220921-fed-hikes-interest-rates-amid-rampant-inflation-despite-recession-risk\">interest rate hike<\/a> is measured to be quite significant and is likely to be followed by an even stronger tightening in terms of monetary policy as we advance. These statistics may change anytime or be updated again. \u00a0But we can see the high probability of the U.S. going into recession next year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recession Statistics 2022-2021 and 2023 Close to Recession But Not Quite In July 2022 Risk of Recession in 2023 Rises Globally World Economic Outlook Report Countering The Cost-of-Living Crisis Chance of a 2022 Recession is Rising With Inflation Probability of U.S. Recession Spikes to 96% Is the U.S. in Recession in 2022? Statista Recession Probability &#8230; <a title=\"Recession Statistics 2022-2023\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.moneyser.com\/facts\/recession-statistics\/\" aria-label=\"More on Recession Statistics 2022-2023\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":157,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Recession Statistics 2022-2023 - Recession Stats \/ Facts - Moneyser<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Are we in a recession? Did the pandemic inflation cause a recession in the USA? 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