Recession Statistics 2022-2023

Recession Statistics 2022-2021 and 2023

  • Close to Recession But Not Quite In July 2022
  • Risk of Recession in 2023 Rises Globally
  • World Economic Outlook Report Countering The Cost-of-Living Crisis
  • Chance of a 2022 Recession is Rising With Inflation
  • Probability of U.S. Recession Spikes to 96%
  • Is the U.S. in Recession in 2022?
  • Statista Recession Probability in U.S. 2023
  • OECD Economic Outlook
  • Global economy Outlook as global recession looms to 3.2%
  • Are We In A Recession Yet?
  • U.S. Recession Within Year Hits 100%
Recession Statistics
Recession Statistics 2022-2023 and 2021

Recession Facts 2022-2021 and 2023

The term recession describes a period when the economy experiences an extended period of low growth. A recession may also be defined as a decline in economic activity lasting for more than a few months. It usually is visible in real GDP growth, personal income, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. Recession statistics help to identify the proximate causes of recessions and predict their duration.

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the total monetary value of all services and finished goods within a country’s borders in a year. Real GDP is an indicator that measures the overall output of goods and services in a country.  This data is updated yearly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).  When GDP growth is negative for two consecutive quarters, the BEA considers this a recession. Here are the recession statistics for 2022.

More Recession Stats 2022-2023

Is the US in a Recession right now

1. Close to Recession But Not Quite In July 2022

Though real GDP declining for two quarters is not definitive on recession, but it’s certainly worth looking at. Real GDP dropped 1,6% in the first quarter of 2022.  It dropped 4,2% in the second quarter.  This doesn’t mean we’re already in recession, but the economy is on shaky ground. This “not quite there” feeling will continue over the next twelve months as real GDP continues to fall by 1% in the third quarter, 0,5% in the fourth quarter, and 0,1% in the first quarter of 2023.

Are we in a Recession?

2. Risk of Recession in 2023 Rises Globally

Suppose this global risk of recession was accompanied by financial-market stress. The GDP growth would slow to 0.5 percent in 2023—a 0.4 percent contraction in per–capita GDP growth. A simultaneous tightening in major advanced economies would also increase funding costs for emerging market economies (EMEs). This combination of factors would raise the risk of a global recession in 2023, with EME growth falling to a trough of under 2 percent and per capita GDP falling by 1.2 percent.

3. World Economic Outlook Report Countering The Cost-of-Living Crisis

The Outlook reports that global growth recession is forecast to decline from 6.0% in 2021 to 3.2% in 2022 and 2.7% in 2023.  The slowdown would be driven by a moderation in the expansion of investment and manufacturing output in the United States, China, and the rest of Asia. This would be accompanied by a faster-than-anticipated tightening of monetary policy in major advanced economies, stimulating imports from EMEs.  A more pronounced slowdown than anticipated in these economies could lead to an even more significant increase in effective global interest rates and trigger a global recession.

Does Pandemic inflation Cause  a Recession?

4. Chance of a 2022 Recession is Rising With Inflation

The median recession probability over the next 12 months is 47.5%, up from 30% in June 2018. At the same time, the likelihood of deflation is 58.5%, up from 16% in June 2018. Inflation will undermine borrowers’ purchasing power and weigh on consumption and investment. A recession would put more pressure on government finances, leading to higher debt levels for many countries and thus potentially stoking inflation.

5. Probability of U.S. Recession Spikes to 96%

While the recession probability of U.S. hovered near zero after the initial phase of the global pandemic from September 2020 to March 2022, it rose to over 30 percent in April and reached 50 percent by June.  Following the turn in the U.S. data, the probability of a recession rose further to over continuously.  This is an extraordinarily high probability under current accounting conventions, which reflect less severe short-term macroeconomic shocks than historical precedents.  Likely to be seen as a credible signal that economic expansion is nearing its end and that a recession remains possible for some time before it occurs.

6. Is the U.S. in Recession in 2022?

Recession in the U.S. has many different signs, but there needs to be one indicator. In the second quarter of 2022, growth slowed at a 0.9% annualized rate to 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2018. That’s despite GDP rising at an 8.1% rate in the first quarter of 2022. GDP contracted 0.9% in the third quarter, considerably worse than the projected 0.1%.  But real GDP growth has continued slowly through 2019. Quarterly rates declined to 0% in the fourth quarter of 2019, 1%. In the first quarter of 2020, a revised 1.4% in the second quarter for a cumulative decline of 3.3%.

7. Statista Recession Probability in U.S. 2023

By September 2023, recession probability in the U.S. 2023 is projected that there is a probability of 23.07 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. The probability of recessions in the U.S. increases in January and December 2022 and then decreases in July 2025.  The recession’s probability is forecast to remain close to zero throughout the decade, but it does continue to rise in October 2024.

8. OECD Economic Outlook

OECD reported despite a boost in activity as COVID-19 infections drop worldwide. The global growth is seen to remain in the second half of 2022 before slowing to 2.2% going into 2023. The leading factor slowing global growth is the generalized tightening of monetary policy, especially in advanced economies, which pushes up world interest rates and slows investment and trade.  This increases the funding costs for emerging market economies (EMEs), and growth slows to 2.6%.

9. Global economy Outlook as global recession looms to 3.2%

Global Economists report that the recession will worsen because conditions are becoming tighter. The forecast for global growth is for it to slow from 6.1%t last year to 3.2 % in 2022 – 0.4 percent lower than the current forecast from the World Bank.  That is weaker than the 2.7 percent growth of 2017-19, the worst since 2010-12, because of a fall in commodity prices. Inflation will be at 3 percent in 2022 – lower than the 4 percent seen in 2017–19 – and average global interest rates will be 5 % points higher than they were last year.

10. Are We In A Recession Yet?

According to a Forbes Advisor, the definition of recession, two consecutive quarters of negative (GDP) show that the United States entered a recession during the summer of 2022.  Still, it is worth noting that the economy went into recession after the summer of 2022.  It’s different from the tightening monetary policy that was taking place in 2022, which was offsetting the economy’s problems, like trade disputes and rising costs of goods and services.  Inflation was also starting to get out of hand as we approach 2023.

11. U.S. Recession Within Year Hits 100%

The latest recession shows that the U.S. Recession will hit 100% within the year. Probability models by Bloomberg economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger show a higher recession probability across all timeframes, with the 12-month estimate of a downturn by October 2023 hitting 100%, up from 65% for the comparable period earlier update. The analysis includes data from the Federal Reserve, International Monetary Fund, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The IMF released a statement on the results of their analysis, calling for discussions and a concerted effort by the global community. Earlier, the probability of a U.S. recession rise to over 90 percent was already underlined, with signs of inflation appearing quite closely. The interest rate hike is measured to be quite significant and is likely to be followed by an even stronger tightening in terms of monetary policy as we advance. These statistics may change anytime or be updated again.  But we can see the high probability of the U.S. going into recession next year.

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